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MAT’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 32.1%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of MAT
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 53 cents, indicating a surge of 51.4% from 35 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $1.84 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 11.7% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Let’s take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.
Factors Likely to Shape Mattel’s Q4 Results
Mattel’s fourth-quarter performance is expected to have benefited from accelerating retailer orders and sustained consumer demand ahead of the holiday season. Improving point-of-sale trends across regions, particularly in the United States, and a rebound in shipments following third-quarter order deferrals are likely to have supported the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
The U.S. business, which was pressured in the third quarter by retailer shifts from direct import to domestic shipping, appears poised for sequential improvement. As retailers transitioned toward more just-in-time ordering earlier in the year, shipments were deferred in the fourth quarter. With POS trends remaining positive and consumer demand holding up, retailers are likely to have accelerated domestic orders, aiding revenue recovery during the holiday period.
Strong momentum in Hot Wheels, supported by expanding engagement from adult collectors, is likely to have aided the company’s performance in the quarter under review. Challenger categories, including action figures tied to franchises such as Jurassic World, Minecraft, WWE and Masters of the Universe, are likely to have supported fourth-quarter results.
Dolls’ performance is expected to have shown early signs of stabilization in the quarter under review. Improving trends in Barbie, supported by packaging innovation, enhanced product segmentation, new play patterns and expanding adult offerings, are likely to have aided sequential performance during the holiday season.
However, persistent macroeconomic challenges, including inflationary pressures, tariff-related costs and unfavorable foreign currency movements, are likely to have weighed on the company’s performance in the fourth quarter. Elevated advertising and promotional spend tied to the holiday season, along with the lagged flow-through of tariff costs embedded in inventory, might have exerted pressure on margins.
What Our Model Says About MAT Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Mattel this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. However, that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP for MAT: Mattel has an Earnings ESP of -18.61%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Mattel’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model indicates they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Amer Sports is expected to register a 58.8% increase in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. Amer Sports reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 78%.
Acushnet Holdings Corp. (GOLF - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +10.05% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Acushnet’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decline 1200%. Acushnet reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, the average surprise being 26.4%.
Hilton Worldwide, Inc. (HLT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.08% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
For the to-be-reported quarter, Hilton’s earnings are expected to increase 17.6%. Hilton reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 5.8%.
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Mattel Gears Up to Post Q4 Earnings: What Lies Ahead for the Stock?
Key Takeaways
Mattel, Inc. (MAT - Free Report) is scheduled to report fourth-quarter 2025 results on Feb. 10, 2026, after the closing bell.
MAT’s earnings beat the Zacks Consensus Estimate in three of the trailing four quarters and missed on one occasion, the average surprise being 32.1%.
Trend in the Estimate Revision of MAT
The Zacks Consensus Estimate for fourth-quarter earnings per share (EPS) is pegged at 53 cents, indicating a surge of 51.4% from 35 cents reported in the year-ago quarter.
For revenues, the consensus mark is pegged at nearly $1.84 billion. The metric suggests a rise of 11.7% from the year-ago quarter’s figure.
Mattel, Inc. Price and EPS Surprise
Mattel, Inc. price-eps-surprise | Mattel, Inc. Quote
Let’s take a look at how things have shaped up in the quarter.
Factors Likely to Shape Mattel’s Q4 Results
Mattel’s fourth-quarter performance is expected to have benefited from accelerating retailer orders and sustained consumer demand ahead of the holiday season. Improving point-of-sale trends across regions, particularly in the United States, and a rebound in shipments following third-quarter order deferrals are likely to have supported the company’s performance in the to-be-reported quarter.
The U.S. business, which was pressured in the third quarter by retailer shifts from direct import to domestic shipping, appears poised for sequential improvement. As retailers transitioned toward more just-in-time ordering earlier in the year, shipments were deferred in the fourth quarter. With POS trends remaining positive and consumer demand holding up, retailers are likely to have accelerated domestic orders, aiding revenue recovery during the holiday period.
Strong momentum in Hot Wheels, supported by expanding engagement from adult collectors, is likely to have aided the company’s performance in the quarter under review. Challenger categories, including action figures tied to franchises such as Jurassic World, Minecraft, WWE and Masters of the Universe, are likely to have supported fourth-quarter results.
Dolls’ performance is expected to have shown early signs of stabilization in the quarter under review. Improving trends in Barbie, supported by packaging innovation, enhanced product segmentation, new play patterns and expanding adult offerings, are likely to have aided sequential performance during the holiday season.
However, persistent macroeconomic challenges, including inflationary pressures, tariff-related costs and unfavorable foreign currency movements, are likely to have weighed on the company’s performance in the fourth quarter. Elevated advertising and promotional spend tied to the holiday season, along with the lagged flow-through of tariff costs embedded in inventory, might have exerted pressure on margins.
What Our Model Says About MAT Stock
Our proven model does not conclusively predict an earnings beat for Mattel this time. A stock needs to have a positive Earnings ESP and a Zacks Rank #1 (Strong Buy), 2 (Buy) or 3 (Hold) to beat earnings. However, that is not the case here.
Earnings ESP for MAT: Mattel has an Earnings ESP of -18.61%. You can uncover the best stocks to buy or sell before they’re reported with our Earnings ESP Filter.
Mattel’s Zacks Rank: The company has a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Stocks Poised to Beat on Earnings
Here are some stocks from the Zacks Consumer Discretionary sector that investors may consider, as our model indicates they have the right combination of elements to post an earnings beat.
Amer Sports, Inc. (AS - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +5.69% and a Zacks Rank of 3 at present. You can see the complete list of today’s Zacks #1 Rank stocks here.
Amer Sports is expected to register a 58.8% increase in earnings for the to-be-reported quarter. Amer Sports reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 78%.
Acushnet Holdings Corp. (GOLF - Free Report) has an Earnings ESP of +10.05% and a Zacks Rank #3 at present.
Acushnet’s earnings for the to-be-reported quarter are expected to decline 1200%. Acushnet reported better-than-expected earnings in two of the trailing four quarters and missed twice, the average surprise being 26.4%.
Hilton Worldwide, Inc. (HLT - Free Report) currently has an Earnings ESP of +3.08% and a Zacks Rank of 3.
For the to-be-reported quarter, Hilton’s earnings are expected to increase 17.6%. Hilton reported better-than-expected earnings in each of the trailing four quarters, the average surprise being 5.8%.